Book Project
The Civic Legacies of Wartime Social Orders
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Why does violence lead to increased participation in victimized communities in some cases but not in others in the post conflict period? Why is violence in some cases a collectivizing experience but an atomizing and individualizing one in others? My dissertation examines how the social orders that emerge during wars affect the political participation of war survivors and their descendants in the post-conflict era. Specifically, I argue that the degree of agency granted to civilians and the ideological content of these orders shape the continuity of civilian organization and the formation of collective identities that sustain postwar mobilization.
This research advances our understanding of the mechanisms linking past violence to present-day political participation. It empirically contributes to the literature on the legacies of violence by investigating the microsocial processes violence and governance and their effects on different patterns of postwar political participation. Using the case of indigenous communities in Guatemala that lived and survived a genocide in the 1980s and lived under varied regimes of wartime governance, I employ a natural experiment, archive work, interviews, focus groups and a survey to develop a theory of the political legacies of wartime social orders. The dissertation on which the book is based received the 2025 Gabriel A. Almond Award for Best Dissertation in Comparative Politics by the American Political Science Association. Read the Award Committee's citation here. |
 Community Townhall in the indigenous community of Primavera del Ixcán, Guatemala 2022
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Peer-Reviewed Publications
Peace Scholarship and the Local Turn: Hierarchies in the Production of Knowledge about Peace (2022) Journal of Peace Research
(with Anna Johnson, Sehrazat Mart, Mark Robison and Caroline Hughes), 10.1177/00223433221088035
The ‘local turn’ in peacebuilding has focused attention on the importance of cultural resources available for peacemaking in ‘local’ conflict-affected contexts, and particularly in non-Western countries. Growing attention is now also paid to establishing whether the academic field of peace studies itself is inclusive of non-Western voices and perspectives. This article presents a new dataset of 4,318 journal articles on peace indexed in Web of Science between 2015 and 2018 to discover asymmetric patterns of publication and scholarly gatekeeping between higher-income and lower-income countries. Analysis of the data collected suggests that 15 years after the ‘local turn,’ higher-income countries continue to dominate the field across the domains of publishing institutions; scholarship about non-high-income countries; the conduct and focus of research collaborations; claims to theorization; and the discourse of the field. However, positive change is being driven by a proliferation of scholarship in upper-middle-income countries, characterized by intranational collaborations between scholars writing about their own countries in their own national journals.
(with Anna Johnson, Sehrazat Mart, Mark Robison and Caroline Hughes), 10.1177/00223433221088035
The ‘local turn’ in peacebuilding has focused attention on the importance of cultural resources available for peacemaking in ‘local’ conflict-affected contexts, and particularly in non-Western countries. Growing attention is now also paid to establishing whether the academic field of peace studies itself is inclusive of non-Western voices and perspectives. This article presents a new dataset of 4,318 journal articles on peace indexed in Web of Science between 2015 and 2018 to discover asymmetric patterns of publication and scholarly gatekeeping between higher-income and lower-income countries. Analysis of the data collected suggests that 15 years after the ‘local turn,’ higher-income countries continue to dominate the field across the domains of publishing institutions; scholarship about non-high-income countries; the conduct and focus of research collaborations; claims to theorization; and the discourse of the field. However, positive change is being driven by a proliferation of scholarship in upper-middle-income countries, characterized by intranational collaborations between scholars writing about their own countries in their own national journals.
Work Under Review
Roving Rulers: How Armed Groups Govern Without Territorial Control - Invited to Revise and Resubmit
(with Hannah Early-Bagdanov)
Traditional rebel governance scholarship, rooted in Olson’s “stationary bandit” model, assumes rebels aim to build alternative states through territorial control. Recent research suggests that rebels pursue diverse goals and govern through social control, the "roving ruler" model of governance. This article systematically examines the relationship between territorial and social control across discrete governance sectors for 145 rebel groups (1980-2011). Our findings reveal that territorial control predicts certain governance functions—such as policing and elections—while social control explains others, including taxation and healthcare. By broadening the understanding of governance in civil wars, this study challenges state-centric models of rebel governance.
The Political Legacies of Exile: How Inclusive Reception Policies Shape Refugee Long-Term Political Engagement
How do refugee experiences in receiving countries shape their long-term political behavior? This article argues that inclusive reception policies that grant refugees political and economic rights can foster civic engagement after return. Leveraging the exogenous assignment of Mayan indigenous Guatemalans to refugee settlements in 1980s Mexico, I find that inclusive hosting increased post-return participation in nonviolent protest by 25 percentage points. The analysis draws on archival sources, an original household survey of 379 returnees, and 48 semi- structured interviews conducted during ethnographic fieldwork in three Guatemalan return communities to probe four mechanisms plausibly driving this relationship: expectations of institutional responsiveness, increased political efficacy, strengthened organizational capacity, and peer learning. While most existing research focuses on the effects of refugees on host communities and determinants of return, this study examines how host reception policies influence refugee behavior after going home, with implications for post-conflict democratization and refugee policy worldwide.
Click for draft and supplementary file. Check out a three minute video summarizing the paper's argument here.
The Economic Foundations of Illicit Power: DTO Strategies and Their Political Consequences in Guatemala
(With Diego Romero)
Drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs) expand territorial control through both violence and institutional capture. While much attention has focused on their use of coercion, less is known about how DTOs exploit legal markets and state institutions to launder money and consolidate power. This paper investigates the relationship between commodity-driven land expansion and criminal entrenchment in Guatemala, focusing on the growth of oil palm cultivation. Leveraging exogenous shocks to global palm oil prices, we estimate the impact of DTO expansion on two outcomes: political violence and corruption in public procurement. We use municipal panel data from 2016–2023, original data on attacks against civil society actors, and detailed procurement records linked to the national investment monitoring system (SNIP). We find that palm expansion increases corruption-related contracting patterns (e.g., contracts to sole bidders or to potential shell firms) without increasing lethal violence. These results suggest that DTOs consolidate territorial control not only through violence, but increasingly through co-optation of local procurement markets.
An Integrated Approach to Subnational Research: From Design Elements to Theory Refinement
(With Gonzalo Contreras, Javier Pérez-Sandoval, and Eugenia Aguirre)
Attention to the subnational level has grown significantly over the past few decades. Recently, scholars have developed frameworks that highlight the advantages of subnational research, including multilevel analysis, the reduction of “theoretical stretching,” and its compatibility with a wide range of methodologies—from experimental designs to interpretative approaches. However, there has been much less progress in offering practical guidance and explicit recommendations for scholars seeking to implement a subnational research design aimed at theoretical innovation and addressing concerns about external validity. In this article, we propose (1) a stylised step-by-step model to structure subnational research and strengthen its contribution to knowledge accumulation; and (2) strategies to maximise the opportunities offered by subnational case selection, such as the identification of omitted variable bias and control by design. Drawing on exemplary studies of subnational politics in areas such as representation, democracy, and political violence, we advance practical design elements, anticipate common challenges, and suggest ways to situate findings within broader theoretical debates—an area we identify as a major weakness in current subnational research. This article contributes to the growing interest in theory contribution and external validity in subnational studies by offering a concrete framework through which researchers can design their research and anchor their findings within clearly defined theoretical fields.
(with Hannah Early-Bagdanov)
Traditional rebel governance scholarship, rooted in Olson’s “stationary bandit” model, assumes rebels aim to build alternative states through territorial control. Recent research suggests that rebels pursue diverse goals and govern through social control, the "roving ruler" model of governance. This article systematically examines the relationship between territorial and social control across discrete governance sectors for 145 rebel groups (1980-2011). Our findings reveal that territorial control predicts certain governance functions—such as policing and elections—while social control explains others, including taxation and healthcare. By broadening the understanding of governance in civil wars, this study challenges state-centric models of rebel governance.
The Political Legacies of Exile: How Inclusive Reception Policies Shape Refugee Long-Term Political Engagement
How do refugee experiences in receiving countries shape their long-term political behavior? This article argues that inclusive reception policies that grant refugees political and economic rights can foster civic engagement after return. Leveraging the exogenous assignment of Mayan indigenous Guatemalans to refugee settlements in 1980s Mexico, I find that inclusive hosting increased post-return participation in nonviolent protest by 25 percentage points. The analysis draws on archival sources, an original household survey of 379 returnees, and 48 semi- structured interviews conducted during ethnographic fieldwork in three Guatemalan return communities to probe four mechanisms plausibly driving this relationship: expectations of institutional responsiveness, increased political efficacy, strengthened organizational capacity, and peer learning. While most existing research focuses on the effects of refugees on host communities and determinants of return, this study examines how host reception policies influence refugee behavior after going home, with implications for post-conflict democratization and refugee policy worldwide.
Click for draft and supplementary file. Check out a three minute video summarizing the paper's argument here.
The Economic Foundations of Illicit Power: DTO Strategies and Their Political Consequences in Guatemala
(With Diego Romero)
Drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs) expand territorial control through both violence and institutional capture. While much attention has focused on their use of coercion, less is known about how DTOs exploit legal markets and state institutions to launder money and consolidate power. This paper investigates the relationship between commodity-driven land expansion and criminal entrenchment in Guatemala, focusing on the growth of oil palm cultivation. Leveraging exogenous shocks to global palm oil prices, we estimate the impact of DTO expansion on two outcomes: political violence and corruption in public procurement. We use municipal panel data from 2016–2023, original data on attacks against civil society actors, and detailed procurement records linked to the national investment monitoring system (SNIP). We find that palm expansion increases corruption-related contracting patterns (e.g., contracts to sole bidders or to potential shell firms) without increasing lethal violence. These results suggest that DTOs consolidate territorial control not only through violence, but increasingly through co-optation of local procurement markets.
An Integrated Approach to Subnational Research: From Design Elements to Theory Refinement
(With Gonzalo Contreras, Javier Pérez-Sandoval, and Eugenia Aguirre)
Attention to the subnational level has grown significantly over the past few decades. Recently, scholars have developed frameworks that highlight the advantages of subnational research, including multilevel analysis, the reduction of “theoretical stretching,” and its compatibility with a wide range of methodologies—from experimental designs to interpretative approaches. However, there has been much less progress in offering practical guidance and explicit recommendations for scholars seeking to implement a subnational research design aimed at theoretical innovation and addressing concerns about external validity. In this article, we propose (1) a stylised step-by-step model to structure subnational research and strengthen its contribution to knowledge accumulation; and (2) strategies to maximise the opportunities offered by subnational case selection, such as the identification of omitted variable bias and control by design. Drawing on exemplary studies of subnational politics in areas such as representation, democracy, and political violence, we advance practical design elements, anticipate common challenges, and suggest ways to situate findings within broader theoretical debates—an area we identify as a major weakness in current subnational research. This article contributes to the growing interest in theory contribution and external validity in subnational studies by offering a concrete framework through which researchers can design their research and anchor their findings within clearly defined theoretical fields.
Work in Progress
Human Rights or Criminals' Rights? Crime, Violence, and the Popular Delegitimization of Human Rights in Latin America
(With Regina Bateson) - draft available upon request
This paper examines the growing skepticism toward human rights in Latin America, particularly in the context of rising crime and insecurity. While the region has made significant strides in peacebuilding, democratization, and justice for past human rights violations, a troubling narrative has emerged that frames human rights as protections primarily for criminals rather than victims. We analyze this critique, which has circulated widely since the 1990s, and argue that it reflects a broader historical effort by states to undermine the concept of human rights. Using survey experiments, we show that exposure to crime-related concerns reduces public support for human rights, suggesting that fear of crime can actively erode confidence in these protections. Further, in-depth interviews reveal that this criticism is often driven by a perception that the rights and security of victims are neglected, a phenomenon we call "relative security deprivation." Finally, we propose policy interventions aimed at addressing this imbalance, fostering greater public trust in human rights, and strengthening democratic institutions in the face of widespread criminal violence.
When the State Comes Back: Legacies of Rebel Governance and Statebuilding in Colombia
(Kellogg Institute for International Studies - Legacy Project Grant)
Rebuilding state authority in post-conflict settings represents a critical challenge, particularly in territories previously controlled by armed groups. In these areas, the state must contend with limited infrastructure, deep-seated distrust, and the legacy of rebel governance. This article examines the dynamics of statebuilding in former rebel-held territories, with a focus on Colombia. Drawing on data about civilians’ percepetions of state and rebel service provision, protest data, and records of armed group resurgence, this study investigates three interrelated questions: (1) how rebel governance shapes civilians’ perceptions of state service delivery in the pos-conflict, (2) how these perceptions influence civic engagement, and (3) whether perceived degradation in service provision between rebel and state rules fosters the resurgence of armed groups. The findings underscore the pivotal role of service and security provision in consolidating state authority and preventing governance vacuums.
Criminal El Dorado: How the Resource Boom Shaped Organized Crime in Latin America
(With Moises Arce) - draft available upon request
The 2000s commodity boom in Latin America expanded natural resource exports and labor markets, with regulatory frameworks shaping market dynamics and determining winners and losers. While some countries protected small-scale producers, others prioritized transnational capital, creating enforcement gaps that allowed criminal organizations to infiltrate the extractive sector. This paper examines how natural resource prices, institutional regulations, and governance structures influenced criminal activity in Peru, Guatemala, and Colombia. It argues that variation in criminal governance is shaped by the interaction between regulatory frameworks—whether they favored transnational corporations or small-scale producers—and the controllability of the value chain. Using a mixed-methods approach, including fieldwork, interviews, and archival research, the study highlights how weak institutional enforcement fosters informal regulation by criminal groups.The paper contributes to understanding the relationship between economic shifts, market regulation, and illicit activities, offering insights into the implications for violence, environmental protection, and community displacement across different extractive industries.
A cause without rebels or rebels without a cause? Trajectories of Post-Conflict Remobilization in Guatemala and Colombia
(With José Gutierrez Danton and Nina Caspersen)
What explains remobilization of rebel combatants in post-conflict settings? And why do (former) rebels remobilize in some cases but not others? The literature on combatant remobilization usually focuses on the motivations internal to armed organizations and the shape of the demobilization process. However, we know that rebel groups are often deeply embedded with the local populations over which they de facto rule and that they sometimes build extensive governance infrastructure. After the end of conflict, these strong rebel-civilian interpersonal connections and civilian expectations regarding rebel provision of security shape the bottom-up demand for rebel remobilization. This paper proposes a relational approach to rebel remobilization. Although rebels do have organizational incentives to remobilize and that the demobilization process provides the background against which rebels judge incentives to remobilize, civilian demands for rebel security provision are an overlooked motivation for rebel remobilization. This article proposes that combatant remobilization responds to two main incentives: the demand for governance by local communities that previously lived under rebel rule, and the possibilities by/incentives for the group to supply governance.
(With Regina Bateson) - draft available upon request
This paper examines the growing skepticism toward human rights in Latin America, particularly in the context of rising crime and insecurity. While the region has made significant strides in peacebuilding, democratization, and justice for past human rights violations, a troubling narrative has emerged that frames human rights as protections primarily for criminals rather than victims. We analyze this critique, which has circulated widely since the 1990s, and argue that it reflects a broader historical effort by states to undermine the concept of human rights. Using survey experiments, we show that exposure to crime-related concerns reduces public support for human rights, suggesting that fear of crime can actively erode confidence in these protections. Further, in-depth interviews reveal that this criticism is often driven by a perception that the rights and security of victims are neglected, a phenomenon we call "relative security deprivation." Finally, we propose policy interventions aimed at addressing this imbalance, fostering greater public trust in human rights, and strengthening democratic institutions in the face of widespread criminal violence.
When the State Comes Back: Legacies of Rebel Governance and Statebuilding in Colombia
(Kellogg Institute for International Studies - Legacy Project Grant)
Rebuilding state authority in post-conflict settings represents a critical challenge, particularly in territories previously controlled by armed groups. In these areas, the state must contend with limited infrastructure, deep-seated distrust, and the legacy of rebel governance. This article examines the dynamics of statebuilding in former rebel-held territories, with a focus on Colombia. Drawing on data about civilians’ percepetions of state and rebel service provision, protest data, and records of armed group resurgence, this study investigates three interrelated questions: (1) how rebel governance shapes civilians’ perceptions of state service delivery in the pos-conflict, (2) how these perceptions influence civic engagement, and (3) whether perceived degradation in service provision between rebel and state rules fosters the resurgence of armed groups. The findings underscore the pivotal role of service and security provision in consolidating state authority and preventing governance vacuums.
Criminal El Dorado: How the Resource Boom Shaped Organized Crime in Latin America
(With Moises Arce) - draft available upon request
The 2000s commodity boom in Latin America expanded natural resource exports and labor markets, with regulatory frameworks shaping market dynamics and determining winners and losers. While some countries protected small-scale producers, others prioritized transnational capital, creating enforcement gaps that allowed criminal organizations to infiltrate the extractive sector. This paper examines how natural resource prices, institutional regulations, and governance structures influenced criminal activity in Peru, Guatemala, and Colombia. It argues that variation in criminal governance is shaped by the interaction between regulatory frameworks—whether they favored transnational corporations or small-scale producers—and the controllability of the value chain. Using a mixed-methods approach, including fieldwork, interviews, and archival research, the study highlights how weak institutional enforcement fosters informal regulation by criminal groups.The paper contributes to understanding the relationship between economic shifts, market regulation, and illicit activities, offering insights into the implications for violence, environmental protection, and community displacement across different extractive industries.
A cause without rebels or rebels without a cause? Trajectories of Post-Conflict Remobilization in Guatemala and Colombia
(With José Gutierrez Danton and Nina Caspersen)
What explains remobilization of rebel combatants in post-conflict settings? And why do (former) rebels remobilize in some cases but not others? The literature on combatant remobilization usually focuses on the motivations internal to armed organizations and the shape of the demobilization process. However, we know that rebel groups are often deeply embedded with the local populations over which they de facto rule and that they sometimes build extensive governance infrastructure. After the end of conflict, these strong rebel-civilian interpersonal connections and civilian expectations regarding rebel provision of security shape the bottom-up demand for rebel remobilization. This paper proposes a relational approach to rebel remobilization. Although rebels do have organizational incentives to remobilize and that the demobilization process provides the background against which rebels judge incentives to remobilize, civilian demands for rebel security provision are an overlooked motivation for rebel remobilization. This article proposes that combatant remobilization responds to two main incentives: the demand for governance by local communities that previously lived under rebel rule, and the possibilities by/incentives for the group to supply governance.
Book Reviews
Omar Sanchez-Sibony (ed.). State-Society Relations in Guatemala: Theory and Practice. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2023. Latin American Politics and Society. 10.1017/lap.2024.33
Other Publications and Public Facing Scholarship
Who Has the Edge in Guatemala’s Presidential Race?, Featured Q&A, Latin America Advisor, The Dialogue, 11 April 2023, find commentary here
‘La Juridiction Spéciale pour la Paix colombienne: juge impartial ou institution politisée?’, Délibérée 9(1) – (The Special Jurisdiction for Peace in Colombia : impartial judge or politicized institution ?)
Available in French here
La participación de las víctimas en el Sistema integral de verdad, justicia, reparación y no repetición (2017)
(book with Consuelo Linares and Juan Carlos Ospina, Comisión Colombiana de Juristas)
Available in Spanish here
From the penal prosecution of the Nuremberg trials to the massive diffusion of transitional justice measures since the 1980s, the participation of those who suffered massive violations of their most basic rights has been dramatically transformed. Transitional justice devices are increasingly designed to reflect the voice of victims and give them centrality as subjects of rights. Yet, the protagonism of victims has proved far from uniform across cases and has instead become one of the most problematic components of the newly-created transitional justice systems. Point 5 of the Colombian Peace Accords emphasizes the importance of victims' participation for the implementation of the agreements achieved between the FARC and the government. To this end, the Accords created the Integral System for Truth, Justice, Reparation and Non-Repetition (SIVJRNR), tasked with ensuring the centrality of victims in the pursuit of those objectives. This book analyzes the efficacy the SIVJRNR for ensuring victims participation in the definition, implementation and monitoring of the Colombian transitional justice system. It offers recommendations in light of international norms regarding victims' participation in transitional justice and applicable Colombian jurisprudence.
‘La Juridiction Spéciale pour la Paix colombienne: juge impartial ou institution politisée?’, Délibérée 9(1) – (The Special Jurisdiction for Peace in Colombia : impartial judge or politicized institution ?)
Available in French here
La participación de las víctimas en el Sistema integral de verdad, justicia, reparación y no repetición (2017)
(book with Consuelo Linares and Juan Carlos Ospina, Comisión Colombiana de Juristas)
Available in Spanish here
From the penal prosecution of the Nuremberg trials to the massive diffusion of transitional justice measures since the 1980s, the participation of those who suffered massive violations of their most basic rights has been dramatically transformed. Transitional justice devices are increasingly designed to reflect the voice of victims and give them centrality as subjects of rights. Yet, the protagonism of victims has proved far from uniform across cases and has instead become one of the most problematic components of the newly-created transitional justice systems. Point 5 of the Colombian Peace Accords emphasizes the importance of victims' participation for the implementation of the agreements achieved between the FARC and the government. To this end, the Accords created the Integral System for Truth, Justice, Reparation and Non-Repetition (SIVJRNR), tasked with ensuring the centrality of victims in the pursuit of those objectives. This book analyzes the efficacy the SIVJRNR for ensuring victims participation in the definition, implementation and monitoring of the Colombian transitional justice system. It offers recommendations in light of international norms regarding victims' participation in transitional justice and applicable Colombian jurisprudence.
